AccuWeather Global Weather Center
AccuWeather preliminarily estimates the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Helene will be between $95 billion and $110 billion. Helene is expected to be one of the costliest storms in U.S. history because of the devastating storm surge, damaging winds and historic flooding. In particular, the widespread storm surge impacts along the populated west coast of Florida, such as Tampa Bay, as well as the historic, catastrophic flooding disaster in the Appalachians are significant contributing factors to the estimate.
This is a preliminary estimate, as the storm effects are continuing to be felt and some areas have not yet reported complete information about damage, injuries and other impacts.
AccuWeather, which provided far more advance notice to people, businesses and communities about Hurricane Helene and its potential life-threatening impacts than any other source, forecasted Helene to make landfall as a Category 4 storm in the Big Bend of Florida. AccuWeather predicted a coastal storm surge up to 23 feet, which rushes ashore like a tsunami.
“Helene was a large and extremely powerful storm, with wind gusts of hurricane force extending far out from the center through the Florida Peninsula and a devastating, even record storm surge all along the Gulf Coast of Florida as the storm headed northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “After landfall, with the storm moving rapidly northward, hurricane conditions continued well northward into Georgia, with major metropolitan areas like Atlanta experiencing damaging winds and flooding rains. Catastrophic impacts also extended into the southern Appalachians, where flash flooding continues as does the risk of dam failures in some areas. AccuWeather is forecasting a Local StormMax™ of 36 inches of rain. At least 40 deaths have been attributed to Helene thus far.”
AccuWeather exclusively issued the first forecast for the storm 19 hours before any other source, including the National Hurricane Center, giving valuable additional life-saving notice to those in the path of the storm. AccuWeather also indicated that Helene would become a major hurricane ahead of all other sources. Helene went on to impact the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, resulting in major damage. It then made its way, as accurately forecast by AccuWeather ahead of other known sources, northward and brought hurricane conditions into Georgia and catastrophic flooding to the southern Appalachians while bringing damaging winds and flooding rain into the Atlanta metro area. Helene also left over 4.5 million customers without power, and some will remain without for days or weeks with numerous downed trees blocking roads and slowing emergency response and recovery operations.
Due to the expected extreme impacts, AccuWeather forecasted Helene to be a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. Unlike the Saffir-Simpson scale, which only measures wind speed, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale a 6-point scale, ranging from less than 1 to 5, which includes other important factors to communicate the impacts of a storm, such as flooding rain, storm surge and total economic damage and loss on top of the wind.
“It should not be a surprise to see AccuWeather’s exclusive $95-110 billion preliminary estimate for total damage and economic loss from Helene, given the urgency of AccuWeather’s communication about the major flooding risks and widespread disruption to business activities that we predicted the storm would cause from the Gulf Coast of Florida, right up through the southeastern U.S. well in advance of landfall,” Porter said. “This is exactly the type of storm for which we created AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, to help people to better understand and be better prepared for the wide-ranging threats that a hurricane or tropical storm can pose to their community.”
Helene will go down as one of the most damaging and impactful storms in U.S. history, along with Hurricane Ian from 2022, which brought $180-210 billion in total damage and economic loss; 2017’s Hurricanes Harvey, which caused $190 billion in total damage and economic loss, and Irma in in 2017 ($80 billion); Sandy in 2012 ($210 billion); Katrina in 2005, ($320 billion), as adjusted for inflation. Other storms this year included $28-32 billion for Beryl and $28 billion for Debby.
According to AccuWeather, Helene caused widespread power outages, extensive damage to homes, including high-end coastal real estate and businesses, and caused significant flight delays and cancellations as well as school and airport closures. Numerous roads were washed out in the southern Appalachians, and much of western North Carolina was shut down with communities becoming inaccessible due to raging flood waters.
The storm surge impacts across the Tampa Bay area, as accurately forecast by AccuWeather before all other known sources, were truly historic with numerous tide gauges reporting storm surges of 6-10 feet and many new all-time records being set from this storm, some of which on gauges that existed in the 1940s. This was a key part of the estimate of total damage and economic loss because of the high-valued properties in these areas that sustained significant water damage.
For the areas impacted by flooding, water damage tends to be particularly costly to repair and may either not be covered by homeowner’s insurance policies or underinsured relative to actual damage sustained for people who do carry additional flood insurance.
The AccuWeather estimate largely accounts for damage to homes, businesses, medical facilities, roadways and vehicles as well as power outages, which results in food spoilage and interruption to medical care.
AccuWeather incorporates independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm, includes both insured and uninsured losses and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate the damage. It includes damage to property, job and wage losses, crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses and flight delays. The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management and the extraordinary government expenses for cleanup operations and the long-term effects on business logistics, transportation and tourism as well as the health effects and the medical and other expenses of unreported deaths and injuries.
The Views Expressed In This Article Belong Solely To The Original Author, And We Assume No Responsibility For Its Accuracy, Completeness, Or Any Consequences Arising From Its Use.
