AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 6, 2024
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are warning people to prepare for an extreme risk to lives and property in the Tampa Bay region ahead of major hurricane impacts, which are expected to arrive in less than 72 hours.
“Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians. Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes, as indicated by AccuWeather hurricane experts rating the storm a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton can bring a variety of life-threatening dangers, including an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated parts of Florida, and the I-4 corridor, especially from Tampa toward Orlando.”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say Milton is expected to intensify into a life-threatening hurricane over the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by early this week. Milton is forecast to move through an area with minimal wind shear, opening the potential for rapid intensification.
“Slight variations in Milton’s track can have major ramifications for the impacts experienced in various parts of Florida. For example, should Milton track a bit further south and make landfall south of Tampa, the storm surge in Tampa Bay can remain dangerous but not as extreme. Such a track would also greatly increase the risk for significant, damaging water inundation in areas that experienced widespread destruction from Hurricane Ian’s storm surge, especially areas near Fort Myers, Naples and Charlotte Harbor,” Porter explained. “Should an intense Milton track just north of Tampa, storm surges of 20 feet could occur in parts of Tampa Bay, resulting in widespread and catastrophic damage, not seen in this part of Tampa Bay in modern history.”
Porter warns that Milton will disrupt cleanup and recovery operations in many communities along the Florida Gulf coast that were recently impacted by storm surge, flooding and wind damage from Helene.
“These dangerous hurricane impacts would be concerning enough, but the impact can be intensely amplified in some areas because of recent significant damage from Hurricane Helene. For example, in the Tampa Bay area, Helene resulted in all-time record storm surges of 6-10 feet and significant property damage. An additional major disaster on top of previous damage significantly compounds impact and risk,” Porter warned. “Disaster response resources are already deployed to support recovery from the catastrophic damage from Hurricane Helene in parts of the Southeastern United States. Another major hurricane hit within two weeks threatens to strain resources and complicate recovery operations.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva urges families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders to follow evacuation orders, and to prepare for major, long-lasting impacts and hazards.
As the storm moves toward the Gulf Coast of Florida, a wide swath of 2-4 inches of rain can fall across the Florida Peninsula and the northern Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches can occur across much of the peninsula from Jacksonville to Miami. Across central and parts of northeastern Florida, rainfall totals can reach 8-12 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches. Rainfall rates could reach 2-4 inches per hour with the heaviest downpours. If this occurs in urbanized areas, it can result in catastrophic flooding, including roads becoming impassable for a time.
Wind gusts of 60-80 mph can occur across much of the Florida Peninsula from Gainesville to Cape Coral. Near where the center of circulation makes landfall, wind gusts can reach 120-140 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 165 mph. These winds can be strong enough to cause long-lasting power outages and expansive infrastructure damage, especially in places that were impacted heavily by Helene.
Gusty winds of 40-60 mph can extend eastward across northern portions of the Bahamas and eventually Bermuda and northward along the Georgia and Carolina coasts.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting 10-15 feet of life-threatening storm surge in the Tampa Bay region. A storm surge of 3-6 feet is expected across parts of the Gulf coast to the north, and to the south of Tampa Bay.
Some areas along the Gulf coast of Florida are at an increased vulnerability to storm surge due to the absence of protective sand dunes and barriers from damage sustained from former Major Hurricane Helene. This will create an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas that will once again have dangerous and life-threatening surges.
DaSilva says conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate across central and southwestern Florida beginning early in the day on Wednesday. The storm is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Wednesday afternoon into the evening, expanding the risk of flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts across a wide swath of the state. By Thursday, the storm is expected to move off Florida’s Atlantic coast.
Hurricane Milton will approach the west coast of Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday morning then cross the Peninsula Wednesday afternoon and evening, before moving out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday. During that time, tornadoes will be possible to the northeast, east and southeast of the path of Milton.
- Due to catastrophic rainfall, destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge, Milton is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States.
A 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes warns of widespread catastrophic flooding, flooding that may last days to weeks, widespread power outages, structural damage to many buildings and severe coastal inundation.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists issued the first track and impact forecast for a hurricane threat along the Florida gulf coast around 9 a.m. Saturday morning, before any other known source.
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